For a long time, punting on 4th down was the default move in the NFL. Coaches didn’t want to take unnecessary risks, especially if it meant giving opponents good field position. But that old-school mindset is changing fast. With data now driving more decisions than ever, teams are getting bolder. No one has leaned into this trend more than Ben Johnson, the former Lions offensive coordinator and now head coach who helped turn Detroit into one of the league’s most aggressive and exciting teams.
Johnson didn’t just call plays. He helped reshape how the Lions approached the game. Starting in 2022, Detroit became one of the NFL’s most fearless teams on 4th down. Whether it was 4th-and-2 at midfield or a surprising fake deep in their own territory, Johnson showed time and time again that he was willing to go against the grain. By 2023 and 2024, the Lions ranked near the top in both 4th down attempts and conversion rates. More importantly, they were winning because of it.
What made it work wasn’t just guts. It was numbers. Advanced stats like win probability models and Expected Points Added (EPA) support the idea that going for it on 4th-and-short, especially past midfield, often leads to better outcomes. Johnson embraced that, but he also built an offense designed to succeed in those moments. With motion, misdirection, and quick-read concepts, his quarterbacks were put in great positions to keep drives alive.
One moment that defined his approach came in the 2024 Divisional Round. Facing a 4th-and-2 at midfield, Johnson didn’t just go for it — he called a deep shot. It hit, the Lions scored, and the entire momentum of the game flipped. That decision may have seemed risky, but for Johnson, it was about trusting the process and trusting his players.
Other coaches like Doug Pederson and Kevin Stefanski have helped usher in this new data-driven mindset, but Johnson stands out because he doesn’t just follow the numbers. He builds his team’s identity around them. His partnership with Dan Campbell created a culture fueled by confidence and calculated aggression. The players bought in because they understood the “why” behind each call.
Sure, aggressive 4th down decisions still draw criticism when they don’t work. But Johnson has shown that sticking to the philosophy — even when it backfires — is what separates good teams from great ones.
The NFL is a copycat league, and Ben Johnson’s approach is already influencing others. In a sport where every inch matters, the edge now belongs to the teams willing to go for it. And Johnson’s Lions proved that playing it safe might be the biggest gamble of all.